WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1195e2df72e34604e8beb4aa28bbc30e3a0ca00acb9e5f50ba002edef898173e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.78 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 43c | 2,342$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.72 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,017$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.76 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 52c | 1,529$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.06 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 51c | 1,174$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.36 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…c994backed Under | 74c | 800$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 2c | 748.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 49c | 614.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Under | 53c | 583.04$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.03 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 51c | 477.88$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Under | 77c | 322.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 256$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 21c | 255.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 249.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 53c | 230$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 177.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 124$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 21c | 98.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 16c | 86.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 81.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 47c | 59.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 49.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 51c | 41.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Under | 80c | 28.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 46c | 25.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 22.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.