WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f6e863dccd580d94b5fb3a9252de004e9a55bf431946bc50a75dc938526a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 6,001$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.12 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 5,990$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.79 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,503$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.19 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 3,094$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.46 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 3,033$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.8 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 2,658$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.1 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…dcb7backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 2,368$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 1,914$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.28 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 1,826$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 1,692$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,440$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.42 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…9105backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 904.21$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Connecticut Sun | 58c | 775.86$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 761.96$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 679.02$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.06 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 610$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 459.72$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 415$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 397.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.96 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 375$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 352.18$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 340$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 327.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…306dbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 50cpaid | +77%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 251.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 224.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 220$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 209.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…1750backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 204.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 201.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…6e60backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 170.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…74a9backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 142.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 122.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Connecticut Sun | 47c | 120.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…fcd1backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Connecticut Sun | 36c | 100.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Connecticut Sun | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 73.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 65.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Connecticut Sun | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Connecticut Sun | 41c | 41.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 31.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Connecticut Sun | 38c | 30.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 30.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 22.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…2c60backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.