WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83e0cbcf73e7a603e40f538aa397d18db1db12f1e8bb2ddaf3e48393278a89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 51c | 12,701$6,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,421.55 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 4,332$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.57 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 3,999$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.57 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 51c | 2,097$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.17 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,665$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.01 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 1,559$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.29 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…cee2backed Over | 49c | 989.36$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 852$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 50c | 751.88$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.7 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 51c | 588.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.65 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 50c | 450$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 49c | 394.63$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 328.2$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.82 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 319.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.27 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 308.08$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 27c | 265$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 42c | 213.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 190.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 48c | 177.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 48c | 168.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 149.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 109.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 52c | 99.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Over | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 49c | 71.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Over | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 43c | 65.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 51c | 61.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 49c | 56.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 46c | 44.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Under | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 50c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 51c | 40.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…08f0backed Under | 51c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ebe3backed Under | 49c | 23.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Over | 53c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.