Europa Conference League · resolved market
Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5d263e0c30c1cbfdcc77aa0028bc755e4ccd1e44d3f7c04effb157fd2bc661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd586…7c9bbacked Under | 53c | 1,712$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Under | 51c | 1,085$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…caaebacked Over | 49c | 1,040$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 61c | 909.04$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.82 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 655.7$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.62 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 47c | 512.75$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.76 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 49c | 334.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 315.76$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.91 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 294.71$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 294$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 291.53$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 28c | 253.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 47c | 197.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 183.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 118$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 112.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Under | 29c | 112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 48c | 48.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Over | 48c | 43.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked Over | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7b…3d69backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 49c | 33.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 49c | 28.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 47c | 21.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…17e7backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5this page
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: Noah FA O/U 2.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 0.5Over won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 1.5Over won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 3.5Over won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 4.5Under won
- Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Sion (-1.5)Noah FA won
- Spread: Noah FA (-1.5)FC Sion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.