WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf7a21a8c9365d178995d3d9bdff64ed2d3f97973e157ce9c605e650db1ce7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Minnesota Lynx, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 19,768$8,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,702.24 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 13,520$7,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,948.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 10,005$5,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.23 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 8,811$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.03 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 6,605$3,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.23 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 4,826$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.88 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 4,118$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.61 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 3,572$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.68 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 3,552$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 3,037$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.04 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 2,942$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.37 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 2,925$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f5…4e90backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 2,328$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 2,071$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.58 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 1,534$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.38 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 43c | 1,449$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.45 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 1,330$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.45 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 1,072$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.68 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 885$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 785.22$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.5 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 627.47$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.3 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 621.44$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.99 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 499.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 409.38$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 72c | 299.93$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 299.56$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 283.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Lynx | 28c | 259.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…db42backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 157.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 138$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 119.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 115.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Lynx | 33c | 111.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 105.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 95.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 75.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Phoenix Mercury | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…b180backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 69.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 53.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 48.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…59f1backed Minnesota Lynx | 36c | 44.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c5b9backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Minnesota Lynx | 28c | 40.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 36.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 33.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 32.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Minnesota Lynx | 45c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…2995backed Phoenix Mercury | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…749dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5Over won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.