TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Joblifeof Natus Vincere, Joblife
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$635,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$694,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $635,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 484 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Joblife35c47,820$16,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,004.4934356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed Natus Vincere68c45,779$31,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,118.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Natus Vincere66c37,089$24,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,478.5924145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere58c20,046$11,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,567.8640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Joblife34c20,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,2003435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Joblife34c17,373$5,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,466.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Joblife37c15,345$5,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,697.213046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Joblife35c15,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+124.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa4…5dc8backed Natus Vincere64c12,161$7,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,767.92564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Natus Vincere65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,499.986038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Joblife33c9,659$3,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,501.341,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Joblife56c9,296$5,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.211560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Natus Vincere66c8,791$5,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,798.4228743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed Joblife37c7,052$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,435.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Joblife40c7,024$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.561442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719b…30e5backed Joblife31c7,000$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Joblife35c6,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90010455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Joblife39c6,000$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,664.792055%11 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere65c6,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9c…91e9backed Joblife36c5,793$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,707.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Joblife33c5,500$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,676.1732245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Natus Vincere52c5,265$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.5213355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed Natus Vincere66c4,599$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,035.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed Natus Vincere65c4,470$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.211631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x856c…0d63backed Joblife28c4,135$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,979.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Joblife45c4,093$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.3978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Joblife34c3,999$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.812766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere50c3,971$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.0668458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Natus Vincere66c3,923$2,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5893339.4%13 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Joblife34c3,766$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.221936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Joblife36c3,617$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.725464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Joblife59c3,547$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.156357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Joblife36c3,501$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.4411354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere65c3,404$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.0965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Joblife53c3,347$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.3856551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Natus Vincere61c3,237$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.277164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Natus Vincere64c3,186$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0273444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa413…6c4abacked Natus Vincere65c3,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.021450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Natus Vincere60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Natus Vincere42c2,935$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.221118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere42c2,867$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.4746326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Natus Vincere58c2,849$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.6235142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere63c2,787$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.1993049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere35c2,588$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7168949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Natus Vincere65c2,360$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.381250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Natus Vincere50c2,277$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere63c2,230$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.3539646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Joblife33c2,222$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.7333348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa1c…e369backed Joblife61c2,120$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe97…361ebacked Natus Vincere65c2,063$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.73161.3%19 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed Natus Vincere63c2,039$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.32040%8 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Joblife31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3801100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Natus Vincere65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Joblife35c2,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.994269%29 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7774…5bfbbacked Joblife33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Joblife39c2,000$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.1624250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc72…c9d0backed Joblife56c1,972$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Natus Vincere66c1,970$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Natus Vincere66c1,899$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.0514941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Joblife32c1,875$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2754161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Joblife34c1,854$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.7615038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Natus Vincere55c1,776$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.1115147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Joblife60c1,772$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.6394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Joblife35c1,725$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.576570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Joblife34c1,700$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.985156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere54c1,698$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.321,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe95…1a93backed Joblife35c1,651$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.391957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere50c1,580$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.2881134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Joblife47c1,538$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.5850944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Natus Vincere66c1,520$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.974845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Joblife54c1,492$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.6653355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1050…43afbacked Natus Vincere51c1,487$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Natus Vincere66c1,370$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Joblife50c1,309$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.453159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Natus Vincere66c1,266$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.5563955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Joblife46c1,224$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.6610455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Joblife30c1,200$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.996445.3%29 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Joblife34c1,200$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.919737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Natus Vincere50c1,140$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57013743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Natus Vincere69c1,119$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.635937.3%22 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Joblife59c1,060$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Natus Vincere66c1,021$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.8746347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e03…040fbacked Natus Vincere66c1,014$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.552751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c0…30f9backed Natus Vincere56c1,012$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-75.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Natus Vincere66c1,009$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.327234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Natus Vincere65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6508640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Joblife36c1,000$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.617653.4%94 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2de2…11a9backed Natus Vincere67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Joblife34c999.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Joblife34c999.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.995263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Natus Vincere50c937.23$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.15143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Natus Vincere57c928.67$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52586747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c70…9168backed Joblife36c884.99$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.41566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere28c883.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1432141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Natus Vincere53c869.04$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.121,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Natus Vincere63c865$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.36668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Natus Vincere58c816.95$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.7762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Joblife37c810.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.816154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Joblife32c802$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.766930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e38…2a58backed Natus Vincere64c782$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.484273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.