Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d8720896546460a48d4f7fd5b3f0705a8d427921222de498d1cd334d4890c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 19c | 566.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 64c | 522.23$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 25c | 347$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 323.8$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 306.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 80c | 293.41$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 19c | 267.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 42c | 265.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 19c | 258.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 225.33$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 69c | 224.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 45c | 205.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 20c | 152.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 123.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 119.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 115.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 114.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 73c | 106.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 52c | 95.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 94.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 92.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 18c | 88.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 87.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed No | 71c | 80.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 24c | 78.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 33c | 75.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 20c | 72.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 63.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 18c | 63.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 53.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…795fbacked Yes | 69c | 50.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 77c | 49.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 42c | 47.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 43.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…85d9backed No | 77c | 42.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 40.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 58c | 36.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 47c | 27.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 77c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 24.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 21.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…9eefbacked Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…4565backed No | 74c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 18.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 65c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…6409backed No | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…3f01backed No | 78c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.