Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e8a8c731dedbc874e5b7d8ecd5870e2966dc8f5919f0a28838ed348264b4ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 55c | 1,005$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 659.31$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 36c | 504.03$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 66c | 257.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 21c | 222$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 209.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 207$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 180.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 150.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 142.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 117.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 115.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 112.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 47c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 103.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 37c | 95.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 30c | 93.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 91.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 19c | 90.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 89.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 13c | 88.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 87.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 25c | 86.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 83.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 80.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 55c | 78.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 77.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 36c | 66.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 76c | 63.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 37c | 63.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 60c | 59.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 58.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 58.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 31c | 56.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 53.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 42c | 50.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 33c | 49.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 38c | 43.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 42.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 71c | 36.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 73c | 35.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 53c | 34.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 32.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 58c | 30.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 61c | 30.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…b4b5backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 48c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518f…df4cbacked Yes | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…795fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.