TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: VARREL vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DetonatioN FocusMeof VARREL, DetonatioN FocusMe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0993…525fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe51c27,593$13,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,596.663767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c24,566$12,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,219.8129255.8%163 W · 129 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed VARREL49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90025855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00019046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked VARREL49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.984153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed VARREL49c10,000$4,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,905.283956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed VARREL48c9,737$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,673.9554851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed DetonatioN FocusMe49c6,291$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,201.2319960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9402356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed VARREL49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.941338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed VARREL49c5,915$2,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,901.9411747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked DetonatioN FocusMe36c5,512$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.953432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4504158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed DetonatioN FocusMe38c4,922$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.153458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed VARREL42c4,516$1,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked VARREL53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.9926838.1%102 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf5…d9f2backed VARREL50c3,915$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed VARREL49c3,592$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.9513050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7503243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed DetonatioN FocusMe18c3,010$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.5710566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c2,725$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.754131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c2,700$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.66063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd2…43f3backed VARREL50c2,680$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.22050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c2,500$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22017052.4%89 W · 81 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2251040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed VARREL54c2,386$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked VARREL52c2,032$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.765062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked VARREL50c1,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.55147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked VARREL54c1,994$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.310346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked DetonatioN FocusMe45c1,761$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x820b…d27abacked VARREL32c1,751$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.3710743%46 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed DetonatioN FocusMe60c1,702$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.9793649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed DetonatioN FocusMe41c1,635$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.8860423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed VARREL50c1,607$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed VARREL52c1,549$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked VARREL79c1,515$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.364235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed VARREL47c1,508$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.5334853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed VARREL50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed VARREL50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75052455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed VARREL49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9942035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed VARREL49c1,495$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.232241.9%135 W · 187 L-15.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe37c1,450$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9194161%25 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+32.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7004261.9%26 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c1,397$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.6115347.1%72 W · 81 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed VARREL54c1,371$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.484047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed DetonatioN FocusMe49c1,370$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6975858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked DetonatioN FocusMe51c1,250$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.59737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed VARREL51c1,210$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.753742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed VARREL50c1,177$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.786150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.474858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed VARREL54c1,158$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.2915038%57 W · 93 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed VARREL50c1,128$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5646428.1%18 W · 46 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed VARREL51c1,048$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.9722446.4%104 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed VARREL48c1,001$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.225459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed VARREL50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008842%37 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed VARREL76c1,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed VARREL49c999.96$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.981735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked VARREL49c999$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5155152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed DetonatioN FocusMe23c962.19$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.8332445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed DetonatioN FocusMe48c940$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed VARREL61c910.46$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.7613449.3%66 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VARREL58c902.26$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.181,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b5…0fcebacked VARREL67c897.61$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed VARREL49c870.6$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3419856.1%111 W · 87 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c847.16$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2793248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked VARREL54c825.73$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4436867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed VARREL46c814.28$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.7649455.3%273 W · 221 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked VARREL40c758.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7939047.9%187 W · 203 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed DetonatioN FocusMe58c745.76$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.36462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c723$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.53852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed VARREL49c719.89$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.755364.2%34 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x15bc…5d6cbacked VARREL7c714.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed VARREL51c675.12$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1123151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed VARREL52c674.32$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35462156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked VARREL50c668$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3341060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed VARREL50c648$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3247646.1%35 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c48…eba9backed VARREL49c613$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.377045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed DetonatioN FocusMe40c600.13$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1322344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004369.8%30 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+34.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked VARREL51c592.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30063056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked DetonatioN FocusMe41c580.03$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.035556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c579.59$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28425761.1%157 W · 100 L+22.9wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ee6…a1efbacked VARREL5c552.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked DetonatioN FocusMe50c550$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2754452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed VARREL50c545.24$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6219546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked VARREL50c520$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c510.1$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.2525453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed VARREL50c508.79$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.418149.7%90 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked DetonatioN FocusMe75c508$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.0670543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed VARREL48c501$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4820160.2%121 W · 80 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed VARREL50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505858.6%34 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb11…7901backed DetonatioN FocusMe48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2602763%17 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked VARREL49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2453060%18 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed VARREL50c490$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed VARREL49c486$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.146570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked VARREL13c446.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6755637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…f703backed VARREL72c432.35$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102055%11 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9562…fbd4backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c427.4$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.554551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.