Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b18e4631b1e61514dcca2c2c931e29184c78acf27f09d1cbad0b3318cc118c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 40c | 1,319$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.61 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 1,218$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 1,156$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 48c | 695.31$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.88 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 671.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 49c | 620.67$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 560$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 496.23$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 453.86$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 30c | 425.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 418.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 399$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 26c | 384.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.6 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 339.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 328$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 75c | 292.8$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 43c | 277.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 274.32$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…da84backed Yes | 50c | 257.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 256.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 246$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 229.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 218.26$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 213.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 62c | 209.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 207.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 186.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 176.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 53c | 176.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 169.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 36c | 165.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 163.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 162.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 45c | 156.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 75c | 153.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 150.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 34c | 149.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 21c | 146$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 139.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 36c | 138.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 137.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 43c | 136$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 130.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 127.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 123$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 62c | 122$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 39c | 120.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 27c | 114.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…c5ddbacked No | 61c | 112.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 42c | 105.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 68c | 105.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 102.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 100.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 60c | 99.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 97.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 64c | 93.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 37c | 92.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 90.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 34c | 85.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 50c | 74.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 19c | 71.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 31c | 71.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 71.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 37c | 70.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 54c | 68.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 69c | 63.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 64c | 63.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 80c | 62.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked No | 24c | 61.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 63c | 60.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 58.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 51c | 57.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 76c | 52.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 34c | 49.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 47.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 65c | 46.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 61c | 46.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 65c | 46.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 46.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 43c | 46.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 43.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 56c | 40.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 73c | 39.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 39.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.