Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfc07e20d57aa0b7fcc874b2e60a54a62548c85c2817c099681b86b8566d8c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 1,372$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.29 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 45c | 1,241$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.39 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 10c | 1,235$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 1,062$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 803.05$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 563$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 560$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 21c | 547.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 37c | 526.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.52 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 473.74$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 399.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 56c | 350.46$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 50c | 315$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 56c | 302$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 248.24$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 234.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 228.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 227.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed No | 50c | 225.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 220$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 218.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 216$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 205.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 53c | 187.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 181.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 179.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 39c | 173.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 14c | 162.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 162.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 158.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 151.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 146.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 23c | 145.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 143.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 134.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 48c | 127.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 51c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 114.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 114.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 56c | 111.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 110.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 109.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 105.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 104.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 97.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 11c | 90.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 80.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 25c | 79.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 79.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 45c | 75.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 40c | 74.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 44c | 72.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 50c | 69.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 48c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 46c | 64.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 48c | 63.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 18c | 63.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 48c | 62.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 51c | 62.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 21c | 61.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 49c | 59.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 58.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 54c | 58.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 56.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 58c | 55.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 50c | 51.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 51c | 46.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 35c | 44.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 44.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 43.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 43.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 42.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 40c | 39.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed No | 74c | 39.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 39.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 38.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.