Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401d653f1f5005c250353371b44dfd71fde7909fd19654e35fd7d5d6dd284fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 658.75$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.69 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 8c | 649.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 357.34$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 57c | 351.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 47c | 265.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 223.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 223.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 40c | 197.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 56c | 192.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 171.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 148.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 140.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 78c | 127.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 108.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 105.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 58c | 95.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed No | 28c | 93.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 62c | 89.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 46c | 84.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 77.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 70.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 52c | 62.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 30c | 60.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 30c | 58.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 54.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 51.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 50.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 43c | 42.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 70c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 61c | 41.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 40.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 37c | 40.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 39.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 38.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 49c | 37.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 51c | 36.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 61c | 33.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 47c | 33.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 62c | 33.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 33.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…353fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 38c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 49c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 56c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.