Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e24e31272799b7b572be5c3af57ace266d452015bb3c8240e9f3eb6ecd13fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 33c | 1,105$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 349.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 29c | 316.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 230.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 224.35$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 158.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 80c | 131.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 114.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 114.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 104$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…5ef5backed Yes | 24c | 82.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 70.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 69.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 60.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 59.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 58.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 50.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 46.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 33c | 45.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 70c | 45.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 22c | 45.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 44.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…dd2abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 69c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 32c | 36.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 36.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 35.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 33.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 32.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 78c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 69c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 71c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.