Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59a9a8ca06901cb4ae61e8b11a8db90732f13ba1174ab776014570d3df4fb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 50c | 3,324$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.3 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 72c | 1,153$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.21 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 965.71$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 374.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 32c | 303.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed No | 50c | 255$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…0d50backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 40c | 190$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 147.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 29c | 144.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 32c | 140.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 123.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 18c | 107.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 50c | 104.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 100.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 37c | 94.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 92.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 69.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 68.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 66.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 58.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 42c | 57.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 40c | 52.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 52.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 62c | 52.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 59c | 46.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 45.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 43.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 42.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 41.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 41.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 46c | 41.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 39.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 37.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 34.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 28.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 53c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 45c | 23.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 67c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 72c | 21.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked Yes | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.