Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ddcf54b88c19a23385fa4a35ec52a1b6cc8743a645590b09c0d302172f8285f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 2,762$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 71c | 957.05$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 777.96$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 691.36$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 607.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 40c | 551.07$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.74 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 528.77$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 58c | 507.77$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 54c | 407.53$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.53 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 400$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 395.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 353.5$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 307.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 50c | 304.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 265.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 39c | 261.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.11 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 206.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 196.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 13c | 192.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 188.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 185.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 172.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 170.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 168.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 159.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 37c | 141.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 137.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 123.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 60c | 120.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 120.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 119.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 113.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 110.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 76c | 108.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 107.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 104.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 101.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 100.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 53c | 92.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 90.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 90.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 73c | 88.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 87.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 86.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 61c | 80.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 72c | 80.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 80.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 21c | 76.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 75.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 73.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 70.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 69.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 38c | 68.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 38c | 68.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 61.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 61c | 51.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 61c | 45.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 39c | 44.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 49c | 44.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 74c | 43.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 42c | 43.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 37c | 42.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 37c | 42.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed No | 24c | 41.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 80c | 39.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 34.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…422ebacked Yes | 71c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 37c | 29.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 53c | 27.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 52c | 25.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.