Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6760ad1bf5453cc37396e64852f24789c6ff42482eba4fa8da7df3d09769173c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 2,721$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,074$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,001$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 8c | 737.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 2c | 524.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 14c | 512.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 22c | 490.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 8c | 466.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 5c | 404.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 348.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 344.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 314.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 10c | 311.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 6c | 284.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 282.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 259.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 10c | 256.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 246.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 21c | 203.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 170.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 18c | 169.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 12c | 168.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7c…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 156.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 133.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 104.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 94.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 82.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 29c | 68.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 53.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 26c | 41.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 40.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 75c | 38.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 20.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.