Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ad5f76ce7ff418ab3771a4ec58cb36d29fafcd5b2d1d4a0ce8fdedda7ffd20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 2,156$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.88 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 727.49$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 611.65$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 586.5$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 529.72$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 48c | 472.21$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.18 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 439.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 26c | 413.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 399.01$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 384.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 361.78$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 30c | 338.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 28c | 287.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 284$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 23c | 228.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 22c | 218.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 202.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 195.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 187.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 41c | 175$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 172.1$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 161.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 157.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 146.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 133.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 133.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 127.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 124$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 23c | 123.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 122.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 118.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 24c | 118.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 117.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 105.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…25f9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 96.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 73c | 95.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 95.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 95.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 94.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 88.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 87.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 84.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 82.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 70c | 82.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 31c | 78.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 77.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 68.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 63.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 59.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 58.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 31c | 56.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 56.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 50.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 33c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 46.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 29c | 41.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 40.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 38c | 39.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 80c | 36.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 41c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 30.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…1dd9backed No | 77c | 30.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 30.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked No | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed No | 80c | 23.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 17.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…c47cbacked No | 75c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked No | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.