Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9ffa6360de4499483e89050b18d25194307949cfe9fe732115ffcd313e99ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 2,114$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.24 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,048$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 34c | 776.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 35c | 671.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.25 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 646.4$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 57c | 485.03$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.35 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 392.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 41c | 331.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 35c | 327.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 56c | 284.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 253.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 246.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 65c | 212.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 52c | 190.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 180.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 179.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 151.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 75c | 147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 143.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 130.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 129$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 123.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 120.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 11c | 119.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed No | 45c | 110.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 109.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 109.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 106.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 31c | 98.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 97.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 96.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 94.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 91.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 42c | 90.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 39c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 64c | 76.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 73.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 72c | 69.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 67.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 53c | 66.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 65.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 65.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 61.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 58.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 56.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 52.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 40c | 49.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 64c | 43.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 58c | 43.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 42.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 69c | 40.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 37.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 30c | 36.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 74c | 36.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 70c | 30.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 61c | 26.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 45c | 24.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 47c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 65c | 20.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 64c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.