Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7eb1c3b13a4bdfaf443076401269b25f83cfc5c56479d844608c126a39b505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 1,479$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 31c | 620.88$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 43c | 512.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 497.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 478.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 408$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 67c | 353.83$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 307.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 276.61$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 259.14$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 241.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 42c | 205.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 56c | 205$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 201.56$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 173.42$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 65c | 169.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 140.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 129$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 122$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 65c | 120.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 116.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 108.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 71c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 32c | 85.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 77.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 71.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 66.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 66.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 65.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 64.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 60.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 76c | 59.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 58.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 55.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 54.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 33c | 52.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 52.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 42c | 52.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 33c | 49.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 63c | 46.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 44.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b4…85d9backed Yes | 44c | 42.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 41.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 41.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 43c | 39.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 61c | 39.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 38.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 35.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 35.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 32.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 30.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 30.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 27.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…dc54backed No | 69c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.