Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ad583b08877ecd8973f699ed0c261a8ffdcd2576843037712fc39abf981b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 3,347$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 1,828$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 1,690$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.39 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 37c | 1,464$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.5 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 952.86$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 886.23$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 60c | 801.67$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.67 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 59c | 773.21$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.3 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 591.56$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 570$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 540.81$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.81 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed No | 61c | 524.32$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 39c | 500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 487.7$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 48c | 471.72$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 422.17$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.45 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 415.55$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 356$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 332$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 57c | 294.92$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 277.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 254.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed No | 59c | 252.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 54c | 251.45$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 41c | 242.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 230.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 229.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 64c | 224.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 214$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 210.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 210.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 50c | 208.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 202.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed No | 59c | 202.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 62c | 201.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 30c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 69c | 193.51$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 187.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 37c | 186.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 186.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 175.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 50c | 172$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 171.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 169$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 169$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 63c | 157.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 156.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 154.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 145.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…89fabacked No | 61c | 143.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 70c | 142.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 31c | 140.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 43c | 134.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 127$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 67c | 125.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 123.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 119.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 118.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 114.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 113$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 108.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 103.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 102.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 98.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 38c | 97.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 90.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 86.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 40c | 82.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 42c | 81.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 74.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 35c | 74.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 45c | 74.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 73.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked Yes | 41c | 70.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 70.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 55c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 36c | 69.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 67.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 36c | 67.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 61.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 60.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 58.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 40c | 52.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 52.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 40c | 50.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.