Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce371086474daeffeb0add539fd44b9171517cc63bb1f9aa1c51c6a00e9b6cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 22c | 1,677$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 1,521$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 41c | 1,309$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.69 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 811.18$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 801.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.77 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 628.68$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 513.79$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 61c | 492.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 487.7$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 454.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.63 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 454.12$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 422.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 33c | 410$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.3 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 367.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 365.62$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 356.27$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 65c | 330$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 41c | 321.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 310.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 304.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 290$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 27c | 247.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 229$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 228.04$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 223.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…89fabacked Yes | 36c | 217.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 205.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 201.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 195$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 191.02$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 167.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 163.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 157.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 149.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 37c | 146.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 23c | 138.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 39c | 138.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 134.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed No | 67c | 131.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 130.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 127.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 35c | 124.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 123.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 26c | 118.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 117.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 117.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 112.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 112.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 110.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 106.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 17c | 105.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 20c | 101.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 65c | 101$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…b28cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 71c | 99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 95.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 91.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 33c | 90.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 89.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 88.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…c31dbacked Yes | 34c | 85.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 68c | 81.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 80.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 80.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…755bbacked Yes | 43c | 78.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 71.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 70.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 55c | 68.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 67.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 66.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 63.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 34c | 59.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 57.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 65c | 57.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 54.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 71c | 50.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 36c | 48.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 45.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 42c | 44.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 52c | 44.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 43.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 59c | 43.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 43.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.