Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed70786c87d96d9615ce1373b1121db4e0c309012e8ce6d396cdfe4e43f99a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 4,357$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…b9c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,273$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,074$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 7c | 780.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 503.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 500.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 497.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 494.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 8c | 462.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 420.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 388.21$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 6c | 359.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 309.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 303.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 274.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 79c | 253.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 10c | 209.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 7c | 201.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 8c | 192.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 15c | 151.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 16c | 151.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 10c | 143.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 137.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 126.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 16c | 111.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 101.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…6472backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 21c | 66.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 34.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…11e0backed No | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.