Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a58ccd357e4ffb480452f973c397758b52d2fcca4e68029a6064c28eac9672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 36c | 2,019$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.45 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 922.43$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.09 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 2c | 699.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 631.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 540.64$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 67c | 328$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 40c | 318.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 297.85$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 14c | 293.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 290.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 40c | 276.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 64c | 242$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 56c | 237.63$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 229.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 209.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 199.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed No | 44c | 194.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 179.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 158.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 155.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 143.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 17c | 133.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 123$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 115.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 111.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 37c | 106.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 38c | 102$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 20c | 101.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 99.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 45c | 99.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 49c | 97.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 89.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 61c | 88.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 68c | 88.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 87.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 77.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 36c | 77.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 64c | 74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed Yes | 24c | 73.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 56c | 73.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 57.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 43c | 55.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…bde6backed Yes | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 51.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 44c | 45.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 44.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 44.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 56c | 44.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 41.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 38.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 36.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 57c | 34.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 44c | 34.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 67c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39e0…8244backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 69c | 29.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 70c | 29.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 28.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 28.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 65c | 27.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 44c | 25.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.