Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40652d651a383ef081cf8749794ce8cb2d0c129b974c54919782f481d384be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 2c | 1,147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 42c | 908.73$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.28 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 739.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 631.64$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 540.64$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed Yes | 78c | 497.68$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 488.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 481.15$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.81 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 416.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 409.4$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 362.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 71c | 321.57$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 9c | 266.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 39c | 253.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 250.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 70c | 249.62$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 239.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.29 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 222.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 6c | 207.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 71c | 193.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 187$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 23c | 155$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 148.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 144.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 137.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 133.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 125.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 123.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 115.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 102.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 100.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…46bebacked Yes | 80c | 98.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 25c | 95.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 32c | 94.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 93.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 73c | 91.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 89.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 47c | 87.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 87.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 87.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 12c | 86.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 77.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 78c | 77.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 70.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 65.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 65.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 33c | 65.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 28c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 22c | 51.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 51.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 51.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 24c | 48.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 32c | 48.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 77c | 46.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 72c | 46.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 35c | 44.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 43.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 42.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 37.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed Yes | 34c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 31.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…d6ccbacked Yes | 35c | 31.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 56c | 30.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 78c | 27.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 25.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…14f4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 16.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.