Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe517badd09e8a5219435f8dc46b6a65b5efbfc15fee71109bd080ceda345c60a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d5a…31c3backed Yes | 0c | 7,517$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,584$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.13 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 1,543$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.62 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 1,397$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 39c | 1,159$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 739.71$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 43c | 669.52$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.02 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 30c | 635.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 44c | 618.35$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.48 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 585.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 539.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 41c | 515.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 25c | 497.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 73c | 408.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 405.27$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 356.79$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 353.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 79c | 349.18$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 52c | 348.71$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 340.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 5c | 338.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 41c | 333.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 39c | 299.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 38c | 289.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 275.27$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 43c | 273.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 52c | 253.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 13c | 248.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 247.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 213.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 37c | 189.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 35c | 188.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 25c | 188.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 57c | 184.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 76c | 182.14$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 15c | 178.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked Yes | 67c | 178.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 171.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 163.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 151.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 149.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 147.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 60c | 146.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 145$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 70c | 143.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 60c | 142.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 140.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 139.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 139.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 139.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 137.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 76c | 131$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 130.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 12c | 129.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 17c | 128.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 52c | 126.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 120.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 119.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked Yes | 56c | 116.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 114.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 105.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 102.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…d375backed No | 30c | 100.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 99.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 99.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 98.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 98.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 46c | 98.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 59c | 94.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 93.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 90.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 30c | 88.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…c791backed No | 33c | 86.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 83.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 82.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 33c | 80.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 60c | 79.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 77.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 76.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 24c | 74.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 35c | 74.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 72.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 38c | 69.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 30c | 67.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 37c | 66.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 65.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 63c | 65.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.