Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd90ab5cd0d384d7e5547f6c2dc2bfce1923941e6b95bff7961c446f514377eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,998$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 1,530$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.63 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 27c | 999.65$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 12c | 388.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 9c | 313.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 17c | 278.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 248.49$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 242.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 24c | 227.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 72c | 208.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 24c | 188.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 19c | 187.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 22c | 182.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 169$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 142.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 138.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 26c | 130.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 26c | 127.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 115.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 107.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 19c | 102.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 25c | 90.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 29c | 87.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 85.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 84.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 83.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 74c | 78.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 79c | 71.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 25c | 67.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 62.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 57.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 55.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 27c | 53.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 48.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 44.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 42.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 78c | 38.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.