Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91b8b6d15c408e72b1421f342ee16773997601ff5131dcd6a1858e5cad9fe2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 1,495$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 17c | 594.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 29c | 469.82$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 456.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 14c | 401.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 64c | 397.73$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 391.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 6c | 376.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 375.51$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 11c | 336.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 310.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 309.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 309.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 282.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 265.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 257$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 33c | 255$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 23c | 230.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 220.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 212.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 210.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 210.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 208.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 9c | 199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 198.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 191.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 177.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 13c | 175.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 27c | 171.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 14c | 138.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 9c | 128$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 124$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 33c | 119.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 12c | 110.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 109.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 108.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 103.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 99.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 93.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 91.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 17c | 76.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 68.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked Yes | 27c | 68.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 29c | 68.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 68.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 67.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 30c | 65.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 62.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 27c | 61.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 59.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 30c | 58.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 29c | 51.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 73c | 50.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 65c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 69c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 72c | 32.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 32.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 74c | 31.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…ae66backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 74c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 74c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.