Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16c24a7f7e0bd6f41d9274256c5f358100142d8d7371c4ced8ada2795c07bd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 634.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 619.14$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 10c | 485.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 14c | 477.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.18 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 429.94$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 27c | 330$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 26c | 306.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 291.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 285.7$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 281.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 264.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 212.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 204$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.88 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 196.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 193$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 185.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 183.18$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 178.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 16c | 177.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 174.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 47c | 169.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 24c | 156.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 146.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 44c | 145.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 139.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 138.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 135$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 133.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 14c | 131.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 128.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 127.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 126$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 74c | 124.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 121.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 119.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 25c | 115$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 114.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 112.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 105.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 102.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 102.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 98.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 96.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 93.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 93.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 86.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 22c | 86.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 85.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 84.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 83.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 81.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 80.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 31c | 76.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 74.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 20c | 73.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 72.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 21c | 70.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 68.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 67.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 60.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 32c | 54.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 27c | 54.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…a322backed Yes | 19c | 54.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2504…9075backed Yes | 19c | 52.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 51.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 48.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 31c | 47.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ff…1819backed No | 71c | 42.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 30c | 40.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…f005backed No | 40c | 40.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 38.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 74c | 31.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 28.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4ecfbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 73c | 27.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 21.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 21.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.