Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c54d52c93102c8972386e74b38dcc1719f56f7513b8bcd60f66ed80d7452f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 2,073$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,111 | 23.7%263 W · 848 L | +72.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,737$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf670…3cb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 819 | 42.6%349 W · 470 L | +27.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 839.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 6c | 699.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 650.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 15.6%17 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 476.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 14c | 430.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 215 | 33%71 W · 144 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 11c | 364.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 361.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 194 | 4.6%9 W · 185 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 222.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 209.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 16c | 208.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 143.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 411 | 26.5%109 W · 302 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 13c | 129.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 352 | 27.6%97 W · 255 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 118.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 253 | 68.8%174 W · 79 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 118.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 333 | 84.4%281 W · 52 L | +38.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 12c | 116.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 101.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 87.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 83.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 14c | 71.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 317 | 82%260 W · 57 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 30c | 41.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 74c | 30.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 71c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or below on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.