Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36585d4f18391928f163fa40fac144435bb63c4d4aeddcbe8b1d443410b13fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 19,244$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 1,225$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 936.11$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 66c | 930.81$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.51 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 24c | 834.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.98 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 688.37$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 24c | 662.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.29 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 34c | 637.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.91 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 637.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 542.36$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.68 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 535.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 27c | 532.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.54 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 12c | 527.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 20c | 526.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 502.7$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 478.76$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 30c | 471.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.23 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 413.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.03 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…5b8cbacked Yes | 24c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 27c | 394.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.13 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 374.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 328.07$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 295.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 53c | 291.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 65c | 291.21$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 49c | 282.29$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 21c | 276.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.37 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 75c | 276.02$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 50c | 273.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 240.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 230.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.23 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 22c | 229.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 18c | 227.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 227.54$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 227.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 224.23$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 44c | 223.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 33c | 221$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 210.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 205$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 202$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 65c | 199.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -64%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 198.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 191.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 191.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 177.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 171.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 169.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 167.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 23c | 165.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed Yes | 32c | 149.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 149.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 37c | 144.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 14c | 138.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 30c | 134.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 44c | 131.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…52d3backed Yes | 79c | 127.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 70c | 127$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 126.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 44c | 124.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 50c | 120.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 32c | 117.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 116.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…47c6backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +133%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 29c | 108.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 28c | 105.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 29c | 103.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 102.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 24c | 100.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 56c | 96.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 94.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 92.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 91.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 90.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 89.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 45c | 89.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 29c | 86.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 85.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 85.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 42c | 84.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 83.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 79.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 75.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 78c | 72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked No | 74c | 71.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.