Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bbd682dca632553a8e18d4df9c441f9f2a47b8daa3f7a7f3324d0612fb1612a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 18,861$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 4,100$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.72 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 71c | 2,412$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 2,192$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.69 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 9c | 1,805$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 1,716$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.95 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,094$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 1,055$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 879.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 852.16$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 4c | 818.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…e26abacked Yes | 29c | 690.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 673.39$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 2c | 558.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 551.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 26c | 534$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 501.03$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 494.7$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 455.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 12c | 424.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 415$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 73c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 399.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed Yes | 30c | 390.07$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 29c | 345.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 30c | 342.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 80c | 337.6$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 320$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 16c | 319.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 302.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 20c | 273.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 19c | 267$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 257.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 78c | 257$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 30c | 254.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 32c | 240$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 237.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 27c | 231.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 31c | 226.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 226.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 25c | 220.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 214$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 30c | 199.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 169.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 146$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 129.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 129.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 77c | 104.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 98.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 95.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 19c | 89.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 85.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…b29ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 17c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…03a5backed Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…e708backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 65.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 32c | 64.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 61.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 61.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 30c | 50.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…7d68backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 69c | 49.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 78c | 42.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 30c | 41.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 28c | 41.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 34.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 33.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7df5backed No | 76c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…022dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.