Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33a386f1fa3392631c4ea40e007b4767bb4320d73a70bf6435e46a747770086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 21,380$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…1ce2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f28…49d6backed Yes | 50c | 2,450$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,882$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 26c | 1,459$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 983.78$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 755.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 744.59$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 719.71$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 693.37$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 653.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 49c | 650.81$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.85 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 633.74$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.03 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 7c | 631.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 66c | 619.84$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 33c | 603.35$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 56c | 584.42$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.38 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 521.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 520.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 502.7$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 484$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 475.87$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 41c | 413.56$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.86 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 50c | 413.12$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 50c | 411.21$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 54c | 377.98$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed No | 45c | 374.44$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 371.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 56c | 368.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 57c | 368.1$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 52c | 360.81$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.54 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 70c | 349.56$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 39c | 323.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 53c | 308.81$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 46c | 298.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 293.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 34c | 281.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 34c | 280$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 273.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 42c | 272.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 50c | 263$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 43c | 250$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 42c | 249.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 53c | 244.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 237.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 38c | 229.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 218.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 28c | 216.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 48c | 214.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 212.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 41c | 209.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 55c | 208.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 53c | 202.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 199$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 43c | 198$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 51c | 197.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 55c | 191.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 189.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…a483backed No | 53c | 187.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 187$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 54c | 186.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 51c | 185$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 181.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 49c | 180.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 29c | 174$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked No | 60c | 167.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 160.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…4f7abacked Yes | 51c | 155.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 26c | 148.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 50c | 140.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 140$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 40c | 138.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 135.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 46c | 131.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 127.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 125.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 47c | 123.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 55c | 122.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 116.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 38c | 114.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 113$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 72c | 108.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 100.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 100.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.