Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf241830c93b1343ab5ddaa51d01d113b0d7797157a52a14a810d8e86cbee9236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 33c | 3,727$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.91 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 79c | 725.14$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.29 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 59c | 486.02$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 30c | 476.17$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 464.03$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 362.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 328.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.17 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 322.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 67c | 269.59$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 199.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 190.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 188.16$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 16c | 180.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 80c | 164.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 157.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 157.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 156.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 150.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…5372backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 134.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 131.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 41c | 128.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 39c | 114.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 21c | 107.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 74c | 104.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 28c | 101.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 95.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 90.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 90.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 89.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 73c | 72.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 30c | 69.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…c965backed No | 17c | 67.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 64.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 34c | 63.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 56c | 58.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 55.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 55.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 54.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 73c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 52.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 37c | 50.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 30c | 45.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 44.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 40c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 41.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 70c | 40.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 70c | 40.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 43c | 39.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 41c | 36.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 28c | 36.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…782dbacked Yes | 67c | 34.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 71c | 29.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 76c | 27.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 78c | 26.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 71c | 25.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…61b5backed No | 72c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 22.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 20.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 65c | 16.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.