Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96a7d081f2d1f111ddc3954dd9eafc4dcbd785aeb4e25298f5fa9914a963b78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,005$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 18c | 485.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 434.64$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 395.2$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 344.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 342.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 27c | 279.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 247.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 173.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 142.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 27c | 138.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 134.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 131.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 128.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 127.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 112.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 17c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 96.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 90.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 85.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 83.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 73.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 59.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 55.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 68c | 52.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…70ccbacked Yes | 26c | 52.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 26c | 49.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 38.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 29.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 73c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd415…44f6backed No | 75c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.