Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b2c94329c64bfb7051dc0b83916a5b11fca9287fdf0c466884afa8f812d6e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 16c | 458.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.44 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 15c | 390.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.15 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed Yes | 48c | 319.87$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.92 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed Yes | 10c | 319.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.93 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 5c | 262.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 19c | 251.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 249.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 207.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.47 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 18c | 179.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 178.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 175.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 24c | 128.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 71c | 126.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 115.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 17c | 106.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 26c | 96.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 93.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 90.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 88.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 18c | 84.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 18c | 83.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 29c | 68.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 65.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 56.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 50.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 20c | 50.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 57c | 45.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 45.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 66c | 37.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…82cbbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 25.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 59c | 18.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.