Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c84edb7e74e92fd39be778c44865731687b65d638910bb83d7fbc9a165df0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 59c | 711.37$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 503.16$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.16 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 351.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 43c | 327.79$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.04 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 69c | 318.67$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 293.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 258.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 229.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 42c | 227.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 196.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 62c | 186.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 184.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 148.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 140.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 42c | 135.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 113.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 108.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 31c | 100.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 11c | 99.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 97.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 65c | 92.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 90.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 82.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 39c | 79.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 58c | 72.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 72.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 65.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 60.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 57.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 55.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 50.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 41c | 48.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 45.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6583backed No | 57c | 44.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 42.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9f…c0ffbacked No | 66c | 42.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…3fefbacked Yes | 36c | 40.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 34c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 41c | 32.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 25.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 40c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 64c | 25.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 58c | 24.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 45c | 24.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 61c | 23.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…f0f7backed No | 66c | 15.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.