Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca06ff397ff4859feb63da998598de6f73fc8b6b81d1ba4c0c42a14adc91174e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 21c | 1,262$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.68 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 16c | 704.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 304.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 287.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 284.95$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 80c | 209$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 19c | 176$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 19c | 137.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 21c | 125.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 125.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 123.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 18c | 120.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 116.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 113.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 102.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 101.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 19c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 24c | 80.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 66.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 22c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 80c | 50.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 79c | 41.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 77c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…e5b1backed No | 73c | 33.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 27.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 77c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 21.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 78c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 74c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.