Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ec6f57cdcfbc696bef989386589159124106f1200ac7975b5e0c66a746a872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 28c | 1,111$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.39 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 753.84$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 521.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 31c | 326.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 323.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 302.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 27c | 288.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 277.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 219.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 209.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 157.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 150.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 138.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 137.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 16c | 126.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 24c | 104.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 23c | 102.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 29c | 100.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fc…c10abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…ee93backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 93.67$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 93.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 85.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 81.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 72.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 72c | 68.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 63.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 59.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 56.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 24c | 56.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 69c | 52.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 51.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…f599backed Yes | 26c | 51.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 72c | 41.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 41.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 38.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 29.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.