Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341d5585bc4a2288d4bae2efcfdba2c920998bb279ecf1a738ba8e3f4f7ef14c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 729.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.32 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 458.91$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…70e3backed Yes | 5c | 264.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 59c | 224$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 198.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 163.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 149.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…ef0dbacked No | 74c | 135.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 78c | 112.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 86.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 84.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…9bbbbacked Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 66c | 52.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 47.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 42.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 35.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 37c | 32.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 26.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 59c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 20.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…37efbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 53c | 19.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.