Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c91862346b114501461ab2ac4322e769c3e7bbaf56ec5d75138aadcc06c73ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 436.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 44c | 414.36$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 268.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 198.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 108.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 74c | 100.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 24c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 86.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…51b3backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…ecc5backed Yes | 63c | 78.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 75.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 60c | 66.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 78c | 61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 76c | 59.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…780abacked Yes | 49c | 52.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 37c | 52.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034c…5f17backed Yes | 46c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 62c | 43.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 40.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 36.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 32.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…3643backed Yes | 39c | 29.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +195.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f040backed Yes | 54c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 53c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…dc5ebacked No | 72c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 80c | 22.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…3b9cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.