TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes26c1,153$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.414531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes33c1,006$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.6831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No79c456.99$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.848560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes19c449.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.4791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c367.61$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes28c359.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.414734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes18c279.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.1348523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes38c270.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.8745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes63c268.77$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4717241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No74c258.83$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c255.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.644,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c254.99$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.194,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes21c252.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.525,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed No72c224.64$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.53745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed No67c224.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5614823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c216.9$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.275,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes36c198.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.981,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c191.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.077,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c185.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.921,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c172.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes26c151.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0245130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes49c148$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c141.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.026,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes18c135.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.931,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c131.26$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.611,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No79c128.21$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.262,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d4d…1674backed No74c126.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.046972.5%50 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c124.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes18c116.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.841,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes22c114.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6960519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c108$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.25,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes25c107.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No66c106.58$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.841,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes27c102$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.311,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes15c101.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.521637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c99.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes21c95.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2217144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c93.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed No74c89.49$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.641353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes24c86.76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0654547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No68c85.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes78c85.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.632,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes23c85.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2313839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes17c83.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No68c82.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3311169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c82.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.752,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes23c79.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.583,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes22c77.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.713,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes39c77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1142643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No69c76.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes25c74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6818814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes30c72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.413444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca06…b2c4backed No71c70.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3642…c2f0backed No71c66.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…ddcebacked No68c66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.061866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No31c65.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.391,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c64.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No68c63.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.523,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No75c60.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.291,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes25c59.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9913738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked No77c59.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5328946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No68c58.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8617443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No66c57.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.052,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No76c56.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.998,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.981,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes38c52.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No72c51.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes58c51.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.443740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd311…8145backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.521,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes58c49.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9927029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c49.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.411,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…3ee3backed No65c49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991450%7 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No79c47.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.194,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes41c44.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c43.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c43.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.997,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c42.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No66c42.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.440535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5525946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes34c39.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3713838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No76c39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4799571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No79c38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.112,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e5…1d85backed No77c35.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.671258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…03b5backed No79c34.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes32c31.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2247239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No52c30.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.742,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c28.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.733,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No77c25.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No77c25.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No65c25.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.