Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc090d4192ee9e86cb2a170d62f896ee31c4fa252118f3cd0fd191c44a8b21a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 26c | 1,153$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.41 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,006$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.68 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 79c | 456.99$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.84 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 449.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.47 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 367.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 28c | 359.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.41 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 18c | 279.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.13 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 38c | 270.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 63c | 268.77$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 74c | 258.83$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 255.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 254.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 252.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 72c | 224.64$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed No | 67c | 224.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 216.9$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 198.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 191.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 185.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 172.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 151.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 148$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 141.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 18c | 135.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 131.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 128.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 74c | 126.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 124.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 116.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 114.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 108$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 107.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 106.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 15c | 101.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 21c | 95.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 93.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed No | 74c | 89.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 86.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 85.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 85.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 23c | 85.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 83.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 68c | 82.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 82.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 79.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 77.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 76.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 71c | 70.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 71c | 66.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked No | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 31c | 65.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 64.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 63.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 60.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked No | 77c | 59.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 68c | 58.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 57.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 56.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 72c | 51.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 58c | 51.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…8145backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 49.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…3ee3backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 47.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 44.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 43.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 43.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 42.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 42.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 34c | 39.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed No | 77c | 35.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 32c | 31.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 30.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 28.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 25.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.