TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c568.28$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.53,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes19c403$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c285.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.839,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No71c281.76$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5710966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes28c235.82$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7727029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No76c210.18$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes27c208.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…2f9cbacked No77c199.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No78c196.58$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9647866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes26c191.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.984327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes22c191$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.651,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes39c165.63$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.874839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c156$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes24c144.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c139.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c137.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.663,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes17c134.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5717241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c128.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.423,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No77c122.11$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0939968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c119.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes32c102.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.761637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No71c99.68$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.289832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes21c96.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c89.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c88.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.192,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes30c84.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes29c78.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0217144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c78.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No78c77.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c76.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes29c68.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c68.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.783,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c64.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.642,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked Yes24c62.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.987346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No69c60.36$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1971159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes27c60.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2914332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c60.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes22c56.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.558,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No77c52.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.122,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes27c51.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8728946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c50.58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4920…2b87backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.548523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes26c45.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.765543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No67c44.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.871,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No79c40.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661f…30b6backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No75c38.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.492,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c37.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.413,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c35.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.953,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e1…61babacked No75c34.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.341181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No78c31.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.763,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No62c24.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No72c23.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5744567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No73c23.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2628866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No68c21.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.972,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c21.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.043,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.742,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c19.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.522,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…ac74backed No68c18.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No72c17.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9521272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No76c16.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.022,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No78c16.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No73c14.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6671…e109backed No70c14.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.