Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a329e910ccafc4961f616330165acd4f8fee68ae6568d93cfb69112c4a83e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed Yes | 2c | 4,730$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 40c | 926.52$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.67 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 438.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 357.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 304.09$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 75c | 255$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 13c | 218.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.42 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 216.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 216.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 69c | 205.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 63c | 205.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 195.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 194$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 190.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 54c | 187.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 25c | 178.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 168.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 164.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 158.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 46c | 140.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 137.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 75c | 133.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes | 43c | 133.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 120.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 68c | 116.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 108.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes | 45c | 103.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 96.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 52c | 94.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 48c | 90.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 45c | 86.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 84.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed No | 49c | 81.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 54c | 81.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…8eb3backed No | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed No | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 54c | 72.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 71c | 70.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 64c | 66.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 65.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 64.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 63.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 45c | 62.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 62.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 49c | 61.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 61.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 60.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 60.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 75c | 59.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 53c | 59.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 58.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 56.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 60c | 55.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 53.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 51.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 44c | 47.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 46.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 43.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 42.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 42.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 39.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 36.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…03c7backed No | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 70c | 32.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.