TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96e5…1d85backed Yes2c4,730$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.471258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes40c926.52$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6731043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c438.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes29c357.49$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes78c304.09$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.1133561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes75c255$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1642544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No13c218.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4220341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c216.9$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No26c216.01$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.272,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No69c205.9$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2923677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes63c205.55$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4917241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c195.21$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c194$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.945,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes40c190.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.21,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No54c187.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes24c180$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.41,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No25c178.01$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9348523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No23c168.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe393…32c8backed Yes41c164.61$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No59c158.84$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.931,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes46c140.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.764839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes45c137.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No75c133.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4617553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes43c133.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.962330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c120.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x17d6…8e5cbacked No68c116.69$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.791866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc4…3536backed Yes46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c108.31$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.319,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81d0…f1dabacked Yes45c103.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.821637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes46c102$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.921,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes46c101$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.464,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes62c97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.985350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c96.58$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.41,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No52c94.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7765353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes48c90.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6315044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes45c86.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0117144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c84.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.042,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed No49c81.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3814823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No54c81.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3519648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4af6…8eb3backed No53c79.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c79.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes39c78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x947a…cd42backed No55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No54c72.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b76…3a40backed Yes71c70.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed No64c66.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.028247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c65.87$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c64.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.594,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c63.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes45c62.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No52c62.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes49c61.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No66c61.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.951,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c60.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c60.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.241,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.413738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.252,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes48c59.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7979040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed No75c59.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.716269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes53c59.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c58.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c56.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes60c55.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1344757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No54c53.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.791,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes80c52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.661365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No54c51.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.491,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.213,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.151,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8812544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes44c47.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No53c46.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.881,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c43.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.443,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No34c42.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No56c42.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes48c41.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes46c41.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes34c41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.640237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b7…847cbacked Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No52c39.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.742,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…7852backed Yes26c39.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.193348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No54c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes38c36.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cfa…03c7backed No57c35.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes45c33.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9925747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d4d…1674backed Yes70c32.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.636972.5%50 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No48c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.592,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.