TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,500 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes69c1,876$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.9527047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes74c853.64$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.413732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No46c705.78$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.0491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes58c696.34$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes77c596.49$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.595451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e5…1d85backed No30c559.95$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.671258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c535.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xe013…6c26backed No77c469.03$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.231291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick72cpaid+33.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No32c430.53$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.843,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes59c414.77$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes73c393.41$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8927841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No13c373.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4939810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No25c332.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.429922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes66c311.87$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3516434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes26c292.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.489626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed No51c287.92$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14611546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed No36c279.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.792152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x389e…3179backed Yes70c266.65$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.821346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No21c237.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1934618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes66c204.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No29c184.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.651,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No55c177.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No29c173.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No51c168.46$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8731868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No57c161.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3919060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes65c159.65$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.881,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c156.79$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes61c154.54$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes55c154.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.746939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes67c140.96$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1618041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c136.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.12,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes73c135.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7819426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes48c131.56$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.914337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c120.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked Yes62c118.35$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes68c113.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes70c113.65$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes64c113$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.021,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes58c108.89$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes73c108.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2538840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes64c105.86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.88641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes71c104.94$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9411646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes57c102.58$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.085527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8819123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No42c99.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes71c98.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7217338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed Yes52c96.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4210247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c94.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No22c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4616456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.83053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes59c85.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.862657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No30c85.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9720942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes65c84.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.93625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked No25c80.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6011425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce45…aa7bbacked No33c75.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253920.5%8 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes75c72.23$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.381233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No55c70.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x172c…5013backed Yes58c69.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed No43c69.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes46c66.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.734062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes73c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.311,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e97…cd70backed No32c62.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+74.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes65c62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2235018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No41c58.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.141,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes79c57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9714338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes72c55.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.896315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.539541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe5…d852backed No40c49.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No33c49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No51c48.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No45c48.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4410335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No39c47.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7538961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes62c47.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.263452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes41c47.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.079429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes77c45.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.655560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes62c45.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1715911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc43c…0678backed No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb0…0648backed No33c43.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes58c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed No36c40.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.467714.3%11 W · 66 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee89…cfb3backed Yes66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e9…8c52backed No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x365a…6120backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e73…5413backed No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b6…d99ebacked Yes50c39.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes53c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.249046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes76c37.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0732352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb70c…31a9backed Yes70c35.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39f0…108fbacked No34c34.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed No34c32.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.