Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6835f93703534ae1885dc1543b44f994a9e2cb4d19e50e9eeba4dec1b9a9a237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,083 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 0c | 20,455$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb507…7f2abacked Yes | 0c | 10,370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 1,029$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 27c | 849.07$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 683.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.95 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 538.4$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 35c | 507.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 20c | 499.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 438.82$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 79c | 436.87$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 25c | 423.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 374.73$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e36…2881backed Yes | 40c | 358$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 348.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 20c | 343.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 316.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 25c | 292.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 22c | 282$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…d4bcbacked Yes | 7c | 229.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 222.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 222$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 200.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 20c | 200.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 166.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 74c | 154.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 153.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 23c | 148.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 26c | 144.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 141.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 25c | 141.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 22c | 134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 33c | 133.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 24c | 103.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 100.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 20c | 99.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 98.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 96.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 29c | 96.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 96.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 76.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 74.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 72.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 40c | 71.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 25c | 65.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 62.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 22c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes | 24c | 58.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 34c | 55.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 44c | 50.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 21c | 50.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…1477backed Yes | 31c | 43.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…3a52backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…2f01backed No | 79c | 23.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…738cbacked No | 73c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2879…e34fbacked No | 79c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…4ed8backed No | 80c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.