TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Team Falcons, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons41c65,038$26,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,600.973,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked PARIVISION69c43,213$29,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,517.622468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked PARIVISION55c40,000$22,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,000.439249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION40c20,914$8,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,644.9781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons61c9,660$5,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,855.6823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons36c8,684$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.631,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Team Falcons36c8,180$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.2522927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION55c6,955$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.233,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons60c6,487$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,892.139247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked PARIVISION44c5,943$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.8759839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed PARIVISION60c5,869$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,368.5634156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Falcons61c5,808$3,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.8846949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked PARIVISION56c5,505$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.96953.6%37 W · 32 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Team Falcons60c4,603$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.763652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed PARIVISION40c4,168$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+53.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked PARIVISION39c4,017$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.2411452.6%60 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x334e…26f1backed PARIVISION46c3,906$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.122661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb15…cbdabacked Team Falcons46c3,664$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7006654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked PARIVISION63c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.625751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Team Falcons30c3,141$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.4313043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION41c3,005$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.0297040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION48c2,812$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.871,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Team Falcons61c2,703$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.8213937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Team Falcons42c2,531$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.2236245.3%164 W · 198 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked PARIVISION42c2,382$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.1426045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed PARIVISION74c2,182$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Falcons61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22064552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf62a…aecfbacked Team Falcons33c1,998$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Falcons60c1,911$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.683652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd2…fe8ebacked Team Falcons53c1,711$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION43c1,697$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.535242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa715…4349backed Team Falcons28c1,694$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Team Falcons59c1,666$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.939260.9%56 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Team Falcons61c1,620$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.211241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3806…bf57backed Team Falcons61c1,566$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Team Falcons10c1,554$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed PARIVISION74c1,356$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.2315970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Falcons28c1,300$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3641,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed Team Falcons42c1,299$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.471947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked PARIVISION40c1,214$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.779941.4%41 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Falcons34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40057322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9936…1d7dbacked PARIVISION40c1,137$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.042420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c6…f5f5backed Team Falcons47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f81…5410backed Team Falcons1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+300%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa090…9854backed PARIVISION50c990.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.527238.9%28 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION65c970.98$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.671,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa811…011dbacked PARIVISION61c964.52$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.12867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8679…cd4fbacked PARIVISION43c940.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.371323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Team Falcons60c924.41$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.6435153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a6…fe97backed PARIVISION53c909$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed PARIVISION43c900$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51624649.6%122 W · 124 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION70c838.46$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25038868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89bc…3b02backed PARIVISION49c836.21$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+79.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbe…9fb7backed PARIVISION40c808.03$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.8114953.7%80 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Falcons58c774$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.9221055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c9c…bcfcbacked PARIVISION47c760$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40015255.3%84 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION40c712.54$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.631,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x687c…8c91backed PARIVISION62c699.63$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.655944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9120…102cbacked Team Falcons46c698.09$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked PARIVISION73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.935961%36 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed PARIVISION46c626.41$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.065,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked PARIVISION68c608.9$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.3278963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d2…3a28backed Team Falcons43c576.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…bb5dbacked PARIVISION40c562.5$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.54143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Team Falcons51c550.7$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.183066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed PARIVISION72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14044648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Team Falcons27c469.95$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8922554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed PARIVISION70c450$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1343447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed PARIVISION40c443.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.415743.3%68 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4de…00b4backed Team Falcons39c434.1$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1708457.1%48 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c0…1885backed PARIVISION40c407.5$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x595b…c9d0backed PARIVISION74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.413857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…0915backed Team Falcons61c404.92$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2474955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed PARIVISION72c404.04$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1317761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed PARIVISION65c370.34$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.348446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Team Falcons40c369.24$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.096949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a5a…c177backed PARIVISION47c365.61$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.21540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Team Falcons28c357.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0242651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons61c338.26$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3435341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbaf5…bf81backed PARIVISION61c318$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed PARIVISION71c311.78$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.784860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Team Falcons33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010635.8%38 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c5a…7f2dbacked Team Falcons60c301.72$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked PARIVISION39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…5d2cbacked Team Falcons29c299.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Falcons33c296.75$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3429128.5%83 W · 208 L-30.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed PARIVISION45c292.01$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.844743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf81…e1b7backed PARIVISION52c288$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.25933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d1d…4773backed Team Falcons61c278.49$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ba9…8920backed PARIVISION52c270$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.14360.5%26 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ddd…5366backed PARIVISION62c265.22$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.913455.9%19 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Team Falcons48c257$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8347738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons39c256.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.77,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb855…3332backed Team Falcons58c256.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509832.7%32 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed PARIVISION41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.59442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked PARIVISION40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15053859.3%319 W · 219 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Team Falcons29c248.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Team Falcons53c246.87$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7465662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Team Falcons35c244.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5231654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Team Falcons32c243.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810534.3%36 W · 69 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.