AI · resolved market

Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x463d4ef6af4de4d685c352c927c70914ab74660635206f25ac8f322e5c70aba0

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $99,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,714 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x12ef…4a02backed Yes	22c	22,620$4,976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,976.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No	79c	6,950$5,510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.93	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfb…a073backed No	78c	6,070$4,735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,335.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad4…6209backed No	78c	6,050$4,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,331	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615a…ec86backed No	78c	5,400$4,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e4…40e1backed No	78c	5,100$3,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,122	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes	21c	3,160$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.45	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes	2c	3,039$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.78	94	35.1%33 W · 61 L	+13.1wins	+0.14per pick	21cpaid	+167%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d92…e287backed Yes	19c	2,709$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.25per pick	36cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No	80c	1,942$1,545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.37	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes	15c	1,685$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.68	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes	20c	1,592$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.61	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-5.7wins	-0.24per pick	40cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	17c	1,577$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.07	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-81%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes	19c	1,174$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.97	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,077$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	17c	999.98$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb01c…7397backed Yes	20c	976.8$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c9…5b69backed Yes	24c	926$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.8	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed Yes	23c	885.5$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.67	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe184…dc00backed Yes	20c	832.26$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2407…9508backed Yes	25c	817.99$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.49	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No	80c	700$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	14c	609$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.83	183	11.5%21 W · 162 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x227f…41e3backed Yes	19c	527.89$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	16c	499$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.84	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	20c	497$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.4	67	16.4%11 W · 56 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	22c	447.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	80c	422.75$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.15	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes	32c	407.31$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.29	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	19c	400$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	126	36.5%46 W · 80 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes	16c	381.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.79	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	18c	302$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5062…365fbacked Yes	24c	293.46$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.07	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Yes	19c	246.91$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e4…c23fbacked No	76c	200$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+160.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbed5…b661backed Yes	17c	192.14$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	16c	180$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x747b…5919backed Yes	22c	179.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+71.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	21c	161$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	73	38.4%28 W · 45 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes	18c	150.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3136…5b6bbacked Yes	26c	130$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ac…a576backed No	78c	128.66$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.66	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes	20c	128.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+175.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1b…e554backed Yes	19c	120$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	17c	119.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No	77c	112.01$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.35	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…335fbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	33cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	18c	110.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf97a…dd22backed Yes	19c	109.79$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…fd8dbacked Yes	10c	103.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	83	6%5 W · 78 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf7…3033backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdea5…d0edbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No	80c	98$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd77e…6adcbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b9e…154abacked Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55a4…94c1backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…2f19backed Yes	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	21c	75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No	77c	72.69$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	70	24.3%17 W · 53 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No	76c	70$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc95…5eb2backed No	80c	62.88$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.88	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf549…2ecbbacked Yes	19c	62.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	288	28.5%82 W · 206 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes	24c	56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed No	76c	56$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.44	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x130c…782cbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x727e…560abacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x976c…6c16backed Yes	26c	41.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca4…5297backed No	78c	41.03$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	73c	34.99$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.45	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	59c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	91	57.1%52 W · 39 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	75c	27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.75	201	48.8%98 W · 103 L	+11.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6b2…84babacked No	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd68…b9c2backed No	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+490%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6774…235bbacked No	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b9…e6d3backed No	63c	22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.14	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	79c	21$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bianca Censori be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event