AI · resolved market

Will Taylor Swift be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62e1c2e7a2b9b61529d6337bd0893850d8a7c42a37f5ad4a2f3e8c0d5ffd130

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $78,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,890 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes	6c	15,501$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.02	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,290$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	3,236$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.65	267	4.9%13 W · 254 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	9c	1,931$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.31	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	9c	1,618$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.68	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7c…1350backed Yes	4c	1,334$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	4c	1,184$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	3c	926$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b1…b45bbacked Yes	6c	864.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e3…a274backed Yes	8c	848.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	4c	775.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	11cpaid	+92.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80b1…1846backed Yes	4c	760.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec9e…580cbacked Yes	10c	683.71$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x995d…455cbacked Yes	6c	498.62$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes	7c	394.67$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f87…ac33backed Yes	10c	377.21$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe592…17d1backed Yes	5c	363.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	4c	324.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	150	2.7%4 W · 146 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	4c	306$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdea…c050backed Yes	7c	287.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	6c	285.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	301	27.2%82 W · 219 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b16…a379backed Yes	9c	282.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes	7c	243.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed Yes	10c	202.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	5c	201.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49bc…9b34backed Yes	48c	104.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	52c	94.6$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.41	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc723…c5aebacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Taylor Swift be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event