AI · resolved market

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58fe0f75d4526eebdf35b57041b7ef286628d47917c173cea657d71a4dcba5f8

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,084 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd7c0…55ffbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c72…a042backed Yes	19c	2,063$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.48	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes	21c	1,580$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.71	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-5.7wins	-0.24per pick	40cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	12c	1,451$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.12	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,282$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.09	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed Yes	23c	1,105$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1f5e…3871backed Yes	20c	600$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed Yes	20c	551.88$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.83	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64df…ab80backed No	77c	500$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes	19c	499.96$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.99	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	15c	418.62$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.87	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	80c	417$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.62	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	79c	414.81$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.7	301	27.2%82 W · 219 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	15c	399.97$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-4.0wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-81%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	17c	381.05$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.13	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…ee13backed Yes	13c	358.43$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e7…89b4backed Yes	16c	311.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.91	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes	14c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes	13c	253.93$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.93	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes	8c	243$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes	19c	242$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.98	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-53%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes	9c	229$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	10c	206.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No	79c	200$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	25cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes	8c	196$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…84bebacked Yes	11c	192$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes	19c	190$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	19c	180$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	12c	179$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.27	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes	8c	164$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes	12c	156.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes	9c	144$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes	21c	140.91$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	8c	128$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+49.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c3…de1dbacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a4…b60cbacked Yes	21c	124$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	80c	120$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	185	44.3%82 W · 103 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes	17c	114.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	33cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes	15c	113$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd77e…6adcbacked Yes	18c	111.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	77c	110$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1b…e554backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	70	24.3%17 W · 53 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-28%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…148cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No	69c	77.17$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	67cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	80c	64.4$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+9.9wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8d…1425backed No	78c	64.23$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.23	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No	78c	45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	72c	41.66$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	288	28.5%82 W · 206 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	79c	36$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.65	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No	77c	33.97$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.85	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0de…a9fcbacked No	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	77c	20.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.62	156	15.4%24 W · 132 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.15	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	80c	16.27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.28	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event