TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Donald Trump be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes12c23,000$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.982615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes9c12,488$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.66128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes18c7,289$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…3254backed Yes19c5,295$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes12c5,102$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.536291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Yes14c3,625$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c2,643$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.151,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff17…5745backed Yes12c1,672$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes12c1,577$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1932416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.7wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4f84…895ebacked Yes14c1,535$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes6c1,252$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8418311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…edd6backed Yes19c1,207$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes10c1,039$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes13c1,010$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes11c795.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.064425%11 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes6c776.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.044734%16 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c771.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.912674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c600.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes3c582$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7512839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes6c361$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.671643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes5c345$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8d…1425backed Yes4c326$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes16c308.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…660dbacked Yes12c302.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes17c288.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked Yes9c268.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05c3…de1dbacked Yes15c264.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes16c248.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b2…84babacked Yes8c245.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-81.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dbc…a8c1backed Yes18c223.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes9c222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.425448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dd5…9858backed Yes12c209.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc7…98aabacked Yes11c200.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ac…1af2backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes11c178.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes6c161$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.397611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c155$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8940712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc17…0b98backed Yes14c143.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes11c142.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.926123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Yes15c133.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba16…d417backed Yes15c132.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf3d…d571backed Yes12c118.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes9c117$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c06…b20bbacked Yes11c90$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes17c87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick33cpaid-79.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.